Tracking and Distortion Part Two

My last entry wasn't a perfect summation of my ca. 2016 point of view, but it was close.

Yesterday I did some basic math and thought:

"I'm twenty six years in the 'beer hobby', actively 'Tracking' new 'BIP' for about ten of those . . . "

before my thoughts shifted (I needed coffee!)

Ten minutes later --and a fresh cup of coffee in my hand-- and my thoughts began to coalesce and to finally gel as I finished posting my latest pedantic retort to a thread over at "Beer Advocate." 

Nope, my thought was not that I had spent far too much time on BA (I knew that after the first year!), but rather that my 'refined' point of view in recent years revolves around the notion that the hobby is really more peculiar and spun-out from day to day food and dining trends than ever before.

That says something -- right?  I mean, here's a guy with thousands of rusty beer cans (and antique bottles, whoo hoo!) in his basement recognizing the fact that his hobby is now weirder than ever!

So what makes it weirder, exactly, and what am I getting at?

In a nutshell, the beer hobby is simply: "First World Problems."

Yeah, I know -- that's a DUMB internet phrase if ever there was one.

But on the other hand, I see the page views, the number of threads, the number of threads on other sites which are similar to BA, and then get to wondering a bit more (since the Twitter and Untappd stats aren't as easy for me to 'read' as the tea leaves on BA . . . )

And so I check out the most recent few posts on the "New Breweries" thread, and -yep- people are frustrated that some well-known brewery plan is taking too long to open:

"I'm sure you've seen the frustrations of us locals play out on these boards. Ultimately of course, if it never happens we'll continue drinking great packaged and homebrewed beer just like we do now so we really have no skin in the game. It's been a running joke now for over a year in our group of friends.

"Hey I heard Brewery X is opening up 'in a few weeks'"
"Yeah, 'any day now' is what I've heard"

The above said thoroughly tongue-in-cheek. At some point the good-natured ribbing became actual frustration over the lack of progress."

Did I mention that this is a "First World Problem"?  Because it definitely is. 

Likewise, what I have not mentioned until now -or have I?- is my own awareness, in the sense that I may have helped to add to the frustration felt by these and other locals by constantly posting about Breweries In Planning.

By constantly posting, am I raising expectations or merely raising awareness? 

Naturally, my intent has never been anything other than increasing awareness, with the upshot that such awareness helps to build some natural sense of curiosity in the reader.  That's it!

This is especially true in light of the fact that  -let's call 'em 'Beergeek Nation'- are the sort of people who've been harping on the fact that the local brewing scene "sucks!" as well as clamoring for a brewpub in their very-own backyard (or at least home town) for the past twenty-odd years.

In no way am I trying to build-up expectations for one or more breweries -- I leave that to the reader.

But this is my not quite clear to me: From the Brewers Association listing BIP to me gathering and reining and re-directing such (and similar) datasets, what is happening is a 'loop' of false positives which end up resulting in frustration at the local level.

I mean, it's proven to have happened once, so it might have happened more than once, right?

In my last post on this topic I referred to the effect of the 'loop' and its false positives as distortion, and I still think that word makes sense. 

Altogether, there's a distorted idea of how many breweries can be supported, including the number of non-brewpubs (Taprooms) and packaging breweries of any kind -- this last point can't be stressed enough, and just this past week I spoke with a brewery owner (a long-awaited and yet-to-open BIP -- not in Jordan, however) who reiterated his own plan for the local market, which I still find to be an historically informed one insofar as the industry is concerned, as well as a conservative one -- considering the trajectory and outlook of the Craft Beer segment, looking forward.

With this entry I hope to have set the record straight, at least for my own part.

All I ever wanted to do was focus the information -- NOT hype it.

In the future, I will go to some pains to NOT hype one or more BIP, much less the notion that the potential for growth in the Taproom category is endless, because it most certainly is not!

If my luck --and coffee-- holds out, my next post will focus on all of those creaking shelves . . .

"Tracking" distorts the Craft Beer industry

The beer hobby has grown and changed a lot in the past forty years. 

It's no longer about collecting cans or sampling "beer from far away."  Nope, there's a potential for big bucks in 'beer tourism' or 'beercations" -- short trips for the purpose of visiting Craft Breweries, especially the thousands of draught-only (DONG) or Growler-focused Taprooms.

As a knock-on to the incredible growth of Taprooms, a segment of the beer hobby has developed which feverishly devotes its time to keeping an eye on the emerging Taprooms, and this is true for "Breweries In Planning" in the state of Minnesota, no less than any other state.

The practice itself is known unofficially as "Tracking", and many of those who engage in it seem to be almost beside themselves with excitement at the prospect of visiting hundreds of new taprooms. 

As with most things, many"Trackers" view the activity as a competitive endeavor, no less than "Ticking" new beers or earning karma points on beer hobbyist sites.

Circa 2013 there were several dozen active Trackers on hobbyist websites, social media, and blogs.

Of all of those trackers, the following --all blogs-- stand out:

• MNBeer.com 
• Craft Beer Time.com  
• MNBeerActivists.com 
• Brewing In Minnesota.com 

While all of these blogs use use social media (which 'drives traffic', in the traditional sense), MNBeer, the oldest, has been the least active at 'tracking.  Conversely, the newest "Brewing In Minnesota" has been the most active at tracking in recent years, being the first to list all possible / potential BIP, including homebrewers who were were fairly clearly not commercial in scope...

While both Craft Beer Time and MNBeerActivists have done their fare share of tracking, for the most part their increased focus in recent years has been on legal issues surrounding Sunday Sales and liberalization of laws related to Minnesota's booming Craft Beer economy.


Hobbyist Fun and Speculation or Market Distortion?

In recent years, other trackers have unsurprisingly followed Brewer Abe's lead.  And why not?  "I'm just a hobbyist" is the rationale used by most bloggers, so why not indeed?

The effect of this is twofold:

1. Other hobbyists follow suit, and expectations are raised.

2. Brewers Association sees these plans as viable, likewise raising expectations.

With such raised expectations inflated numbers of potential growth in the market segment begin to emerge, along with a skewed outlook both at the amateur and industry levels: Those plans which do not develop into commercial enterprises may be misunderstood by hobbyists as "failed plans", when in fact they were never commercial plans to begin with.

The problem with the skewed outlook at the commercial / industrial level should be clear enough, and ultimately, Brewers Association bears some responsibility for the distortion, as their own website lists BA Members of every stripe, along with city and state location, and their search function includes potential plans in the state by state brewery search results.  

So what's the solution to this problem?  Damned if I know!  It's a hobby, after all.

But it's already added confusion to forecasts for the market segment.