Tuesday, August 2, 2016

"Tracking" distorts the Craft Beer industry

The beer hobby has grown and changed a lot in the past forty years. 

It's no longer about collecting cans or sampling "beer from far away."  Nope, there's a potential for big bucks in
'beer tourism' or 'beercations" -- short trips for the purpose of visiting Craft Breweries, especially the thousands of draught-only (DONG) or Growler-focused Taprooms.

As a knock-on to the incredible growth of Taprooms, a segment of the beer hobby has developed which feverishly devotes its time to keeping an eye on the emerging Taprooms, and this is true for "Breweries In Planning" in the state of Minnesota, no less than any other state.

The practice itself is known unofficially as "Tracking", and many of those who engage in it seem to be almost beside themselves with excitement at the prospect of visiting hundreds of new taprooms. 

As with most things, many"Trackers" view the activity as a competitive endeavor, no less than "Ticking" new beers or earning karma points on beer hobbyist sites.

Circa 2013 there were several dozen active Trackers on hobbyist websites, social media, and blogs.

Of all of those trackers, the following --all blogs-- stand out:


  • MNBeer.com 
  • Craft Beer Time.com  
  • MNBeerActivists.com 
  • Brewing In Minnesota.com 

While all of these blogs use use social media (which 'drives traffic', in the traditional sense), MNBeer, the oldest, has been the least active at 'tracking.  Conversely, the newest "Brewing In Minnesota" has been the most active at tracking in recent years, being the first to list all possible / potential BIP, including homebrewers who were were fairly clearly not commercial in scope...

While both Craft Beer Time and MNBeerActivists have done their fare share of tracking, for the most part their increased focus in recent years has been on legal issues surrounding Sunday Sales and liberalization of laws related to Minnesota's booming Craft Beer economy.



Hobbyist Fun and Speculation or Market Distortion?

In recent years, other trackers have unsurprisingly followed Brewer Abe's lead.  And why not?  "I'm just a hobbyist" is the rationale used by most bloggers, so why not indeed?

The effect of this is twofold:

1. Other hobbyists follow suit, and expectations are raised.

2. Brewers Association sees these plans as viable, likewise raising expectations.

With such raised expectations inflated numbers of potential growth in the market segment begin to emerge, along with a skewed outlook both at the amateur and industry levels: Those plans which do not develop into commercial enterprises may be misunderstood by hobbyists as "failed plans", when in fact they were never commercial plans to begin with.

The problem with the skewed outlook at the commercial / industrial level should be clear enough, and u
ltimately, Brewers Association bears some responsibility for the distortion, as their own website lists BA Members of every stripe, along with city and state location, and their search function includes potential plans in the state by state brewery search results.  

So what's the solution to this problem?  Damned if I know!  It's a hobby, after all.

But it's already added confusion to forecasts for the market segment.
 

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