Tracking and Distortion Part Two

My last entry wasn't a perfect summation of my ca. 2016 point of view, but it was close.

Yesterday I did some basic math and thought:

"I'm twenty six years in the 'beer hobby', actively 'Tracking' new 'BIP' for about ten of those . . . "

before my thoughts shifted (I needed coffee!)

Ten minutes later --and a fresh cup of coffee in my hand-- and my thoughts began to coalesce and to finally gel as I finished posting my latest pedantic retort to a thread over at "Beer Advocate." 

Nope, my thought was not that I had spent far too much time on BA (I knew that after the first year!), but rather that my 'refined' point of view in recent years revolves around the notion that the hobby is really more peculiar and spun-out from day to day food and dining trends than ever before.

That says something -- right?  I mean, here's a guy with thousands of rusty beer cans (and antique bottles, whoo hoo!) in his basement recognizing the fact that his hobby is now weirder than ever!

So what makes it weirder, exactly, and what am I getting at?

In a nutshell, the beer hobby is simply: "First World Problems."

Yeah, I know -- that's a DUMB internet phrase if ever there was one.

But on the other hand, I see the page views, the number of threads, the number of threads on other sites which are similar to BA, and then get to wondering a bit more (since the Twitter and Untappd stats aren't as easy for me to 'read' as the tea leaves on BA . . . )

And so I check out the most recent few posts on the "New Breweries" thread, and -yep- people are frustrated that some well-known brewery plan is taking too long to open:

"I'm sure you've seen the frustrations of us locals play out on these boards. Ultimately of course, if it never happens we'll continue drinking great packaged and homebrewed beer just like we do now so we really have no skin in the game. It's been a running joke now for over a year in our group of friends.

"Hey I heard Brewery X is opening up 'in a few weeks'"
"Yeah, 'any day now' is what I've heard"

The above said thoroughly tongue-in-cheek. At some point the good-natured ribbing became actual frustration over the lack of progress."

Did I mention that this is a "First World Problem"?  Because it definitely is. 

Likewise, what I have not mentioned until now -or have I?- is my own awareness, in the sense that I may have helped to add to the frustration felt by these and other locals by constantly posting about Breweries In Planning.

By constantly posting, am I raising expectations or merely raising awareness? 

Naturally, my intent has never been anything other than increasing awareness, with the upshot that such awareness helps to build some natural sense of curiosity in the reader.  That's it!

This is especially true in light of the fact that  -let's call 'em 'Beergeek Nation'- are the sort of people who've been harping on the fact that the local brewing scene "sucks!" as well as clamoring for a brewpub in their very-own backyard (or at least home town) for the past twenty-odd years.

In no way am I trying to build-up expectations for one or more breweries -- I leave that to the reader.

But this is my not quite clear to me: From the Brewers Association listing BIP to me gathering and reining and re-directing such (and similar) datasets, what is happening is a 'loop' of false positives which end up resulting in frustration at the local level.

I mean, it's proven to have happened once, so it might have happened more than once, right?

In my last post on this topic I referred to the effect of the 'loop' and its false positives as distortion, and I still think that word makes sense. 

Altogether, there's a distorted idea of how many breweries can be supported, including the number of non-brewpubs (Taprooms) and packaging breweries of any kind -- this last point can't be stressed enough, and just this past week I spoke with a brewery owner (a long-awaited and yet-to-open BIP -- not in Jordan, however) who reiterated his own plan for the local market, which I still find to be an historically informed one insofar as the industry is concerned, as well as a conservative one -- considering the trajectory and outlook of the Craft Beer segment, looking forward.

With this entry I hope to have set the record straight, at least for my own part.

All I ever wanted to do was focus the information -- NOT hype it.

In the future, I will go to some pains to NOT hype one or more BIP, much less the notion that the potential for growth in the Taproom category is endless, because it most certainly is not!

If my luck --and coffee-- holds out, my next post will focus on all of those creaking shelves . . .

"Tracking" distorts the Craft Beer industry

The beer hobby has grown and changed a lot in the past forty years. 

It's no longer about collecting cans or sampling "beer from far away."  Nope, there's a potential for big bucks in 'beer tourism' or 'beercations" -- short trips for the purpose of visiting Craft Breweries, especially the thousands of draught-only (DONG) or Growler-focused Taprooms.

As a knock-on to the incredible growth of Taprooms, a segment of the beer hobby has developed which feverishly devotes its time to keeping an eye on the emerging Taprooms, and this is true for "Breweries In Planning" in the state of Minnesota, no less than any other state.

The practice itself is known unofficially as "Tracking", and many of those who engage in it seem to be almost beside themselves with excitement at the prospect of visiting hundreds of new taprooms. 

As with most things, many"Trackers" view the activity as a competitive endeavor, no less than "Ticking" new beers or earning karma points on beer hobbyist sites.

Circa 2013 there were several dozen active Trackers on hobbyist websites, social media, and blogs.

Of all of those trackers, the following --all blogs-- stand out:

• MNBeer.com 
• Craft Beer Time.com  
• MNBeerActivists.com 
• Brewing In Minnesota.com 

While all of these blogs use use social media (which 'drives traffic', in the traditional sense), MNBeer, the oldest, has been the least active at 'tracking.  Conversely, the newest "Brewing In Minnesota" has been the most active at tracking in recent years, being the first to list all possible / potential BIP, including homebrewers who were were fairly clearly not commercial in scope...

While both Craft Beer Time and MNBeerActivists have done their fare share of tracking, for the most part their increased focus in recent years has been on legal issues surrounding Sunday Sales and liberalization of laws related to Minnesota's booming Craft Beer economy.


Hobbyist Fun and Speculation or Market Distortion?

In recent years, other trackers have unsurprisingly followed Brewer Abe's lead.  And why not?  "I'm just a hobbyist" is the rationale used by most bloggers, so why not indeed?

The effect of this is twofold:

1. Other hobbyists follow suit, and expectations are raised.

2. Brewers Association sees these plans as viable, likewise raising expectations.

With such raised expectations inflated numbers of potential growth in the market segment begin to emerge, along with a skewed outlook both at the amateur and industry levels: Those plans which do not develop into commercial enterprises may be misunderstood by hobbyists as "failed plans", when in fact they were never commercial plans to begin with.

The problem with the skewed outlook at the commercial / industrial level should be clear enough, and ultimately, Brewers Association bears some responsibility for the distortion, as their own website lists BA Members of every stripe, along with city and state location, and their search function includes potential plans in the state by state brewery search results.  

So what's the solution to this problem?  Damned if I know!  It's a hobby, after all.

But it's already added confusion to forecasts for the market segment.

 

Sucking in '16 -- What's with the Bad Beer?

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Part 1
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In the Prologue, I suggested that the growth of Craft Beer could be (roughly) compared to the growth of the Organic Food niche within the overall consumer market.

While thought-provoking in and of itself, it's not exactly what I wanted to get at.

For one thing, others have made this same, rough comparison in the past, and frankly have already done a fairly good job of parsing it.  Still, I might try my hand at it in the future.

But the point I originally wanted to make concerned Minnesota's "young" Craft Beer scene, and how it is a reflection of something larger.

Fact is, there's a lot going on in the beer industry behind the scenes which your average beer hobbyist isn't aware of or doesn't truly comprehend -- that isn't too controversial a statement, is it?

But how about this for controversial: I know a few professional brewers who view brewing as a dignified, but sometimes drudgery-filled profession, and one which isn't necessarily lucrative.

By point of comparison -and judging solely on the merits of circumstantial evidence- there are some who view the Craft Beer Industry as an endeavor by which to make easy money. 

But who's correct, here?

After all, Craft Beer is definitely of-the-moment, a true cultural phenomenon.  Money IS being made as new breweries proliferate across the state.

But -OMG, are you shocked or what?- when it comes to earning big bucks, brewer is by no means a fast-track occupation.  The truth (small t) is somewhere in between both extremes.

I'm adding a link (below) to a professional forum which I believe to be quite pertinent.

For one thing, it suggests that what is happening in the young Minnesota beer scene may very well be happening in the brewing industry at large.  Consider the conversation below, and the similarities it has with the conversation at the "Falling Beer Quality in Minnesota" thread -- here's the link:

http://discussions.probrewer.com/showthread.php?54019-Brewmaster-Shortcut

Now, let's truck on over to this article at The Growler and have a quick read.  In particular, this quote from that thought provoking article stands out:

 With Mike Hoops holding down the head brewer role at Town Hall, Rifakes says there is no place to promote his assistant brewers. That makes retention a problem—one he believes would be solved were he able to distribute; distribution offers more room for internal promotions.

I won't comment on the idea of Town Hall being able to distribute, but Mr. Rifakes' basic assertion is clearly evident: A lot of assistant brewers and cellar people want to run their own show, and many of them will indeed do exactly that -- only elsewhere, and as competitors.

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The general topic of the ProBrewer thread is on shortcuts in the commercial Craft Brewing process.

Is there evidence in the Minnesota scene to suggest that some brewers feel they can take shortcuts?  That's a roundabout way of saying YES: Agnew's article suggest as much.

Can one transition from homebrewer to Brewmaster simply by being attached to a commercial entity?

Based on the replies at the ProBrewer thread, the answer is NO: Many of the professional brewers who responded on that thread do NOT believe that such shortcuts work out for the best.

Likewise, based on the discussion amongst Minnesota's beer hobbyists, is it not safe to wonder whether we're now seeing more people looking to take shortcuts than ever?

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On the one hand there's no need to wonder about continued growth in the number of breweries. 

Frankly, I can't see an end in sight to the growth in the new model of brewery (Taproom), just as I also foresee growth in the number of breweries with attached restaurants -- Surly and Urban Growler being the local (Twin Cities) examples.

Finally, with all this growth there will be some pain --"growing pains" as it were-- and that chiefly means that some places won't make it to the point that they can celebrate their big 25th anniversary bash, as Summit did just a few years back.

Beyond all of this, I won't make any speculation other than that there will be more, new breweries.

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End Part 1
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Sucking in '16 -- Prologue

A post at Beer Advocate has me thinking about the increase in Minnesota breweries.

By "thinking about", I mean thinking a LOT about -- here's a link to the original post:

Falling Beer Quality as MN gains more Breweries

I have opinions just like everyone, and mine are no more or less qualified than the average poster at BA, Rate Beer, you name it.  And while we can debate the merits of anyone's experience in the (Amateur) hobby or in the (Professional) trade, that's not what inspired me, here.

Besides, we'll save all of that for another (much later) post -- okay?

Instead, I'll ask questions which set the stage for this series.

First, please read the OP and Mr. Agnew's piece which inspired it, if you haven't already. 

Both are reasonably short, whereas this one is most definitely not a short piece.

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Prologue
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I find it interesting that until recent years brewing beer wasn't generally seen as a dignified or serious occupation.  But when a novel, perhaps innovative descriptor was added to the end product of the trade -beer- we have Craft Beer, and brewing is suddenly being regarded more seriously by both those who regularly imbibe and those who seldom do.

As others have done in the past, I believe it instructive to draw parallels between the world of brewing and similar developments in beverage, dining and the broader culture in recent times.

Of couse, we can draw such parallels if we look at the very well-developed world of wine, and in particular the development of the California Wine movement certainly lends itself to such.  Both are beverage alcohol and thus both concern a particular form of licensed, regulated luxury item.

But outside of that "easy"area for the sake of comparison, is there a segment of the food and grocery market which can provide roughly-comparable, measurable growth to Craft Beer, and over a similar span of time? 

Yes there is, and such changes in shopping and dining habits --from staple grocery items to fast-casual to fine dining-- have taken place in the past several decades and are found in the modern Organic Food movement. 

Although there are no exact parallels, there are enough similarities between both Organic Food and Craft Beer where the tangible and monetary effects of each upon the general, consumer marketplace can be measured and compared.

In fact, I'd be very surprised if courses aren't being taught which compare the two!

I imagine they are -- somewhere out west -- where both have been affecting the broader consumer culture for a while longer (being more well-devolped aspects of the consumer market) than they are here in the upper midwest.

But dropping the "easy" comparison between Craft Beer and Organic Food wasn't the point I originaly wanted to make.  Nope!

Instead let's consider it a starting point, and just one of many thought provoking pieces in the challenging (even maddening) larger puzzle that is contemporary Craft Beer in the modern consumer marketplace.

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End Prologue 
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Not-quite jumping in at the Deep End

It's taken me many years to do this, and by many, I mean over ten years.

The point of this blog is to take as its inspiration one or more of the various of-the-moment conversations which will (mostly) originate elsewhere, and expand upon one or more particular idea -or even an entire train of thought- expressed therein.

In the past I've found that this sort of exercise has proven to be cumbersome in day-to-day usage, especially when the (often) short attention span of your average Social Media user is concerned. 

But... older users of Social Media cut their teeth on the "old-fashioned" hobbyist fora, and simply stated, the old want bite-sized, INSTANT (and preferably free) just as much as the young.

But that is pretty much exactly the opposite of what this blog is about.

To say I think a lot about beer is fair, and the fact is my tendency is to "over-think" certain aspects of the modern approach to beer. 

By this I mean not so much the modern beer and brewing industry itself, but rather the knock-on effect.  In other words, I parse the various streams which comprise the contemporary Beer Hobby.

By "Beer Hobby" I mean that which is not wholly reducible to the sum of its parts: Homebrewing, beer rating and reviewing, beer trading, "Truck Chasing". . . and all manner of silliness in-between.

These various aspects of the hobby have grown since Fritz Maytag purchased Anchor Brewing Co. (and certainly since the introduction of Liberty Ale), and they continue to grow and diverge.

As is typical for the way I have written for most of my life, I will ask more questions - most often they will be rhetorical ones - than I will answer. 

What's that you say?  Boring?  Tedious?

TRUST ME!  I know how tedious this style of writing can be.

But I've found that through the tedious process of asking such questions, some degree of clarity is usually reached, if not exactly an capital A Answer.  For as we know, answers can be variable and deeply personal things when we're talking about such rhetorical questions, espeically those which deal in sometimes-intangible amounts (barrels, dollars) and personal tastes or palate.

And as anyone whose judged an amateur homebrew event knows, a palate is VERY personal.

Anyhow, my next post will jump right in at the deep end.

P.S. I'll explain the title of the blog in a later post.  It's not as simple as it sounds.